← Back to Analysis Directory Sample Report: Subscription Churn Prediction

Context and Data Preparation

Analysis Overview and Data Quality

OV

Analysis Overview

Churn Prediction Configuration

Analysis overview and configuration

Churn Prediction
SaaS Company
Predict subscription churn risk and identify at-risk customers
Module Configuration
churn_risk_threshold 0.7
lookback_days 90
prediction_horizon 30
Processing ID
test_1766219250
analysis type: Churn Prediction
company: SaaS Company
objective: Predict subscription churn risk and identify at-risk customers
IN

Key Insights

Analysis Overview

Purpose

This section provides insights into the churn prediction analysis setup, key metrics, and data characteristics to understand subscription churn risk and customer behavior.

Key Findings

  • Overall Churn Rate: 10% - Indicates the proportion of canceled subscriptions.
  • Total MRR: $2566.75 - Represents the total monthly recurring revenue.
  • Plan Churn Data: Plans like Basic have a higher churn rate (18.75%) compared to others.
  • Status Distribution: Active status contributes 72% to MRR.

Interpretation

The analysis aims to predict subscription churn risk and identify at-risk customers. The higher churn rate for the Basic plan suggests a need for targeted retention strategies. The significant MRR contribution from active subscriptions highlights the importance of retaining these customers to maintain revenue.

Context

The analysis lacks details on customer demographics or engagement metrics, which could provide deeper insights into churn behavior. Understanding customer interactions and preferences could enhance the accuracy of churn predictions and retention efforts.

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Key Insights

Analysis Overview

Purpose

This section provides insights into the churn prediction analysis setup, key metrics, and data characteristics to understand subscription churn risk and customer behavior.

Key Findings

  • Overall Churn Rate: 10% - Indicates the proportion of canceled subscriptions.
  • Total MRR: $2566.75 - Represents the total monthly recurring revenue.
  • Plan Churn Data: Plans like Basic have a higher churn rate (18.75%) compared to others.
  • Status Distribution: Active status contributes 72% to MRR.

Interpretation

The analysis aims to predict subscription churn risk and identify at-risk customers. The higher churn rate for the Basic plan suggests a need for targeted retention strategies. The significant MRR contribution from active subscriptions highlights the importance of retaining these customers to maintain revenue.

Context

The analysis lacks details on customer demographics or engagement metrics, which could provide deeper insights into churn behavior. Understanding customer interactions and preferences could enhance the accuracy of churn predictions and retention efforts.

PP

Data Preprocessing

Data Quality & Completeness

0
Final Subscriptions

Data preprocessing and column mapping

Data Pipeline
0
Initial Records
0
Clean Records
Column Mapping
status
→
Status
plan_amount
→
Plan Amount
plan_name
→
Plan Name
plan_interval
→
Plan Interval
created_at
→
Created
canceled_at
→
Canceled At
cancel_at_period_end
→
Cancel At Period End
trial_start
→
Trial Start
trial_end
→
Trial End
0 Records
MCP Analytics
0 Records
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Key Insights

Data Preprocessing

Purpose

This section details the data preprocessing steps, including data cleaning, retention rate calculation, and data split information.

Key Findings

  • Initial Rows: 0 - No data rows were present initially.
  • Final Rows: 0 - After preprocessing, no rows were retained.
  • Rows Removed: 0 - No rows were removed during preprocessing.
  • Retention Rate: 100% - All initial rows were retained after cleaning.

Interpretation

The data preprocessing section indicates that no data was available for analysis after cleaning. The 100% retention rate suggests that no data was lost during the cleaning process, but the absence of final data may hinder the analysis objectives.

Context

The lack of data after preprocessing raises concerns about the availability or quality of the initial dataset. Without data for analysis, the insights and conclusions drawn from this dataset may be limited or unreliable.

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Key Insights

Data Preprocessing

Purpose

This section details the data preprocessing steps, including data cleaning, retention rate calculation, and data split information.

Key Findings

  • Initial Rows: 0 - No data rows were present initially.
  • Final Rows: 0 - After preprocessing, no rows were retained.
  • Rows Removed: 0 - No rows were removed during preprocessing.
  • Retention Rate: 100% - All initial rows were retained after cleaning.

Interpretation

The data preprocessing section indicates that no data was available for analysis after cleaning. The 100% retention rate suggests that no data was lost during the cleaning process, but the absence of final data may hinder the analysis objectives.

Context

The lack of data after preprocessing raises concerns about the availability or quality of the initial dataset. Without data for analysis, the insights and conclusions drawn from this dataset may be limited or unreliable.

Executive Summary

Key Findings and Recommendations

TLDR

Executive Summary

Key Findings & Recommendations

10
Churn Rate

Key Performance Indicators

Overall churn rate
10
Active subscriptions
36
Canceled subscriptions
5
Total mrr
2,566.75
Pending mrr
0

Churn Analysis Summary

Key findings

Metric Value
Overall Churn Rate 10%
Active Subscriptions 36
Churned Subscriptions 5
Total MRR $2,566.75
MRR at Risk $0
Avg Tenure 0 months

Executive Summary

Bottom Line: Overall churn rate is 10% (5 churned out of 50 subscriptions), with $2,566.75 active MRR and $0 at risk.

Key Findings:
• Churn rate of 10% indicates concerning subscription health
• 36 active subscriptions generating $2,566.75 MRR
• Average subscription tenure: 0 months
• 1 pending cancellations ($0 at risk)
• 3 plans analyzed across 50 subscriptions

Recommendations:
• Focus retention on pending cancellations with highest MRR value
• Investigate plans with above-average churn rates
• Improve onboarding for cohorts with steep early drop-off
• Implement win-back campaigns for recently churned high-value customers
• Monitor monthly churn trends to catch emerging problems early

Executive Summary
Key Insights
Action Items
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Key Insights

Executive Summary

Purpose

This section provides a concise overview of the key findings from the executive summary of the churn prediction analysis, focusing on metrics such as overall churn rate, active subscriptions, canceled subscriptions, total monthly recurring revenue (MRR), and pending MRR.

Key Findings

  • Churn Rate: 10% - Indicates concerning subscription health.
  • Active Subscriptions: 36 - Generating $2,566.75 MRR.
  • Average Tenure: 0 months - Suggests a need to improve customer retention.
  • Pending Cancellations: 1 - No MRR at risk.
  • Unique Plans: 3 analyzed across 50 subscriptions.

Interpretation

The 10% churn rate highlights the need to focus on retention strategies to reduce customer attrition. With 36 active subscriptions contributing to $2,566.75 MRR, efforts should be directed towards retaining these customers and potentially exploring reasons for the churned subscriptions.

Context

The analysis provides valuable insights into subscription dynamics, but further investigation into the reasons behind churn and strategies to improve retention may be necessary for a more comprehensive understanding of the subscription landscape.

IN

Key Insights

Executive Summary

Purpose

This section provides a concise overview of the key findings from the executive summary of the churn prediction analysis, focusing on metrics such as overall churn rate, active subscriptions, canceled subscriptions, total monthly recurring revenue (MRR), and pending MRR.

Key Findings

  • Churn Rate: 10% - Indicates concerning subscription health.
  • Active Subscriptions: 36 - Generating $2,566.75 MRR.
  • Average Tenure: 0 months - Suggests a need to improve customer retention.
  • Pending Cancellations: 1 - No MRR at risk.
  • Unique Plans: 3 analyzed across 50 subscriptions.

Interpretation

The 10% churn rate highlights the need to focus on retention strategies to reduce customer attrition. With 36 active subscriptions contributing to $2,566.75 MRR, efforts should be directed towards retaining these customers and potentially exploring reasons for the churned subscriptions.

Context

The analysis provides valuable insights into subscription dynamics, but further investigation into the reasons behind churn and strategies to improve retention may be necessary for a more comprehensive understanding of the subscription landscape.

Subscription Health

Current Status Distribution

STS

Subscription Health

Status Distribution

50
Subscriptions

Subscription status distribution and health overview

50
total subscriptions
36
active subscriptions
5
churned subscriptions
total subscriptions: 50
active subscriptions: 36
churned subscriptions: 5
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Key Insights

Subscription Health

Purpose

This section provides an overview of the current subscription status distribution, highlighting the number of active, churned, and trialing subscriptions, along with the total Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) from active subscriptions and pending cancellations.

Key Findings

  • Active Subscriptions: 36 - 72% of total subscriptions, generating $2,566.75 MRR.
  • Churned Subscriptions: 5 - Representing a 10% churn rate.
  • Trialing Subscriptions: 4 - Indicating potential future active subscriptions.
  • Pending Cancellations: 1 subscription awaiting cancellation.

Interpretation

The high percentage of active subscriptions and MRR contribution are positive indicators of customer retention and revenue stability. The churn rate of 10% suggests room for improvement in retaining customers. Trialing subscriptions may convert to active, impacting future MRR positively.

Context

Understanding the distribution of subscription statuses is crucial for assessing the health of the subscription business model and identifying areas for improvement in customer retention and revenue growth.

IN

Key Insights

Subscription Health

Purpose

This section provides an overview of the current subscription status distribution, highlighting the number of active, churned, and trialing subscriptions, along with the total Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) from active subscriptions and pending cancellations.

Key Findings

  • Active Subscriptions: 36 - 72% of total subscriptions, generating $2,566.75 MRR.
  • Churned Subscriptions: 5 - Representing a 10% churn rate.
  • Trialing Subscriptions: 4 - Indicating potential future active subscriptions.
  • Pending Cancellations: 1 subscription awaiting cancellation.

Interpretation

The high percentage of active subscriptions and MRR contribution are positive indicators of customer retention and revenue stability. The churn rate of 10% suggests room for improvement in retaining customers. Trialing subscriptions may convert to active, impacting future MRR positively.

Context

Understanding the distribution of subscription statuses is crucial for assessing the health of the subscription business model and identifying areas for improvement in customer retention and revenue growth.

Churn by Plan

Identifying Problematic Plans

PLN

Churn by Plan

Plan-Level Churn Rates

3
Churn Rate

Churn rates by subscription plan

3
unique plans
10
overall churn rate
unique plans: 3
overall churn rate: 10
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Key Insights

Churn by Plan

Purpose

This section compares churn rates across 3 subscription plans to identify any disparities that may indicate potential issues with pricing, features, or value propositions. The overall churn rate of 10% sets a benchmark for evaluating individual plan performance.

Key Findings

  • Churn Rate: Basic (18.75%), Enterprise (7.14%), Pro Plan (5%) - Varying churn rates suggest differing levels of customer retention across plans.
  • Total Subscriptions: Basic (16), Enterprise (14), Pro Plan (20) - Plan popularity may influence churn rates.
  • Churned Count: Basic (3), Enterprise (1), Pro Plan (1) - Indicates the number of cancellations per plan.

Interpretation

The higher churn rate for the Basic plan compared to the other plans may signal potential issues that need further investigation. Understanding why customers are leaving this plan at a higher rate can help in devising strategies to improve retention and overall customer satisfaction.

Context

The churn rates alone do not provide the full picture; additional analysis on customer feedback, competitor offerings, and market trends could provide deeper insights into the reasons behind the observed churn rates.

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Key Insights

Churn by Plan

Purpose

This section compares churn rates across 3 subscription plans to identify any disparities that may indicate potential issues with pricing, features, or value propositions. The overall churn rate of 10% sets a benchmark for evaluating individual plan performance.

Key Findings

  • Churn Rate: Basic (18.75%), Enterprise (7.14%), Pro Plan (5%) - Varying churn rates suggest differing levels of customer retention across plans.
  • Total Subscriptions: Basic (16), Enterprise (14), Pro Plan (20) - Plan popularity may influence churn rates.
  • Churned Count: Basic (3), Enterprise (1), Pro Plan (1) - Indicates the number of cancellations per plan.

Interpretation

The higher churn rate for the Basic plan compared to the other plans may signal potential issues that need further investigation. Understanding why customers are leaving this plan at a higher rate can help in devising strategies to improve retention and overall customer satisfaction.

Context

The churn rates alone do not provide the full picture; additional analysis on customer feedback, competitor offerings, and market trends could provide deeper insights into the reasons behind the observed churn rates.

Churn Trends

Monthly Churn Rate Over Time

TRD

Churn Trends

Monthly Churn Over Time

10
Monthly Churn

Monthly churn rate trends over time

10
overall churn rate
5
canceled subscriptions
overall churn rate: 10
canceled subscriptions: 5
IN

Key Insights

Churn Trends

Purpose

This section presents the monthly churn rate trends from January 2024 to November 2024, highlighting the total of 5 cancellations during this period. Understanding these trends is crucial for identifying retention issues within the subscription service.

Key Findings

  • Overall Churn Rate: 10 - Indicates the average rate at which subscriptions were canceled monthly.
  • Canceled Subscriptions: 5 - The total number of subscriptions that were canceled during the specified period.
  • Consistent Churn Rate: The churned count and churn rate remained stable at 1 and 2, respectively, across the months.

Interpretation

The consistent churn rate suggests a steady level of subscription cancellations over the months. While the overall churn rate is at 10%, the specific monthly churn rates remained low at 2%. This stability could indicate a predictable pattern in subscription cancellations.

Context

The analysis focuses on the churn trends within the specified timeframe, providing insights into the monthly subscription cancellations. Further analysis could explore factors influencing these churn rates to improve retention strategies.

IN

Key Insights

Churn Trends

Purpose

This section presents the monthly churn rate trends from January 2024 to November 2024, highlighting the total of 5 cancellations during this period. Understanding these trends is crucial for identifying retention issues within the subscription service.

Key Findings

  • Overall Churn Rate: 10 - Indicates the average rate at which subscriptions were canceled monthly.
  • Canceled Subscriptions: 5 - The total number of subscriptions that were canceled during the specified period.
  • Consistent Churn Rate: The churned count and churn rate remained stable at 1 and 2, respectively, across the months.

Interpretation

The consistent churn rate suggests a steady level of subscription cancellations over the months. While the overall churn rate is at 10%, the specific monthly churn rates remained low at 2%. This stability could indicate a predictable pattern in subscription cancellations.

Context

The analysis focuses on the churn trends within the specified timeframe, providing insights into the monthly subscription cancellations. Further analysis could explore factors influencing these churn rates to improve retention strategies.

Cohort Retention

Retention by Signup Month

COH

Cohort Retention

Retention by Signup Month

0
Retention Rate

Cohort retention analysis by signup month

0
avg tenure months
avg tenure months: 0
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Key Insights

Cohort Retention

Purpose

This section focuses on cohort retention analysis by signup month, highlighting the average subscription tenure of 0 months. It aims to identify potential onboarding issues through observing drop-off patterns in early months.

Key Findings

  • Average Tenure: 0 months - Indicates that subscriptions are not lasting beyond the initial month.
  • Retention Rate: 100% across all cohorts - Suggests that all users are churning within the first month consistently.
  • Active Count: Ranges from 3 to 6 - Shows the number of active subscriptions per cohort, which remains relatively stable.

Interpretation

The data reveals a concerning trend where all cohorts experience high churn rates within the first month, indicating a need to improve customer retention strategies and onboarding processes. The consistent 100% retention rate implies a lack of long-term engagement.

Context

The findings underscore the critical importance of addressing onboarding issues and enhancing early customer experiences to improve overall subscription retention rates. Further analysis into the onboarding process and early user engagement may provide insights into reducing churn and increasing customer lifetime value.

IN

Key Insights

Cohort Retention

Purpose

This section focuses on cohort retention analysis by signup month, highlighting the average subscription tenure of 0 months. It aims to identify potential onboarding issues through observing drop-off patterns in early months.

Key Findings

  • Average Tenure: 0 months - Indicates that subscriptions are not lasting beyond the initial month.
  • Retention Rate: 100% across all cohorts - Suggests that all users are churning within the first month consistently.
  • Active Count: Ranges from 3 to 6 - Shows the number of active subscriptions per cohort, which remains relatively stable.

Interpretation

The data reveals a concerning trend where all cohorts experience high churn rates within the first month, indicating a need to improve customer retention strategies and onboarding processes. The consistent 100% retention rate implies a lack of long-term engagement.

Context

The findings underscore the critical importance of addressing onboarding issues and enhancing early customer experiences to improve overall subscription retention rates. Further analysis into the onboarding process and early user engagement may provide insights into reducing churn and increasing customer lifetime value.

Risk Assessment

At-Risk Subscriptions by Category

RSK

Risk Assessment

At-Risk Subscription Distribution

0
MRR at Risk

Churn risk distribution for active subscriptions

0
pending mrr
1
pending cancellations
pending mrr: 0
pending cancellations: 1
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Key Insights

Risk Assessment

Purpose

This section assesses the risk distribution for active subscriptions, highlighting the financial impact of pending cancellations and the urgency for retention efforts.

Key Findings

  • $0 MRR at risk: Indicates no immediate revenue loss from pending cancellations.
  • 1 pending cancellation: Signals a single subscription at risk of churn.
  • High-risk subscriptions: 72.2% of subscriptions fall into the “Low” risk category, requiring attention.

Interpretation

The absence of MRR at risk suggests minimal financial impact from pending cancellations. However, the presence of a pending cancellation necessitates proactive retention strategies to prevent further churn. The majority of subscriptions are in the “Low” risk category, indicating a need for targeted retention efforts to mitigate potential losses.

Context

The analysis focuses on current risk levels and pending cancellations, providing insights into the immediate churn threat. Understanding risk distribution aids in prioritizing retention efforts and optimizing revenue retention strategies.

IN

Key Insights

Risk Assessment

Purpose

This section assesses the risk distribution for active subscriptions, highlighting the financial impact of pending cancellations and the urgency for retention efforts.

Key Findings

  • $0 MRR at risk: Indicates no immediate revenue loss from pending cancellations.
  • 1 pending cancellation: Signals a single subscription at risk of churn.
  • High-risk subscriptions: 72.2% of subscriptions fall into the “Low” risk category, requiring attention.

Interpretation

The absence of MRR at risk suggests minimal financial impact from pending cancellations. However, the presence of a pending cancellation necessitates proactive retention strategies to prevent further churn. The majority of subscriptions are in the “Low” risk category, indicating a need for targeted retention efforts to mitigate potential losses.

Context

The analysis focuses on current risk levels and pending cancellations, providing insights into the immediate churn threat. Understanding risk distribution aids in prioritizing retention efforts and optimizing revenue retention strategies.

Plan Performance

MRR Contribution by Plan

PRF

Plan Performance

MRR by Plan

3
Total MRR

Performance metrics by subscription plan

3
unique plans
2566.75
total mrr
unique plans: 3
total mrr: 2567
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Key Insights

Plan Performance

Purpose

This section compares performance metrics across 3 subscription plans to understand their impact on the total Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) of $2,566.75.

Key Findings

  • Total Subscriptions: Ranging from 14 to 20, with an average of 16.67.
  • Active Rate: Varies from 62.5% to 78.6%, with an average of 72.03%.
  • MRR: Ranges from $190 to $1641.75, with an average of $855.58.
  • Trial Conversion: All plans have a trial conversion rate of 0%.

Interpretation

The data reveals differences in subscription counts, active rates, and MRR among the plans. The high active rate and MRR of the “Enterprise” plan suggest it may be the most profitable, while the “Basic” plan has the lowest MRR despite a higher active rate.

Context

These metrics provide insights into the performance of individual subscription plans, helping to identify strengths and weaknesses that can inform strategies for optimizing revenue and customer retention.

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Key Insights

Plan Performance

Purpose

This section compares performance metrics across 3 subscription plans to understand their impact on the total Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) of $2,566.75.

Key Findings

  • Total Subscriptions: Ranging from 14 to 20, with an average of 16.67.
  • Active Rate: Varies from 62.5% to 78.6%, with an average of 72.03%.
  • MRR: Ranges from $190 to $1641.75, with an average of $855.58.
  • Trial Conversion: All plans have a trial conversion rate of 0%.

Interpretation

The data reveals differences in subscription counts, active rates, and MRR among the plans. The high active rate and MRR of the “Enterprise” plan suggest it may be the most profitable, while the “Basic” plan has the lowest MRR despite a higher active rate.

Context

These metrics provide insights into the performance of individual subscription plans, helping to identify strengths and weaknesses that can inform strategies for optimizing revenue and customer retention.

Tenure Analysis

When Customers Churn

TNR

Tenure Analysis

Churn by Subscription Age

0
Churned

Churn patterns by subscription tenure

0
avg tenure months
305
churned mrr
avg tenure months: 0
churned mrr: 305
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Key Insights

Tenure Analysis

Purpose

This section examines churn distribution based on subscription tenure, highlighting the $305 MRR churned in total. Early churn (0-1 months) may indicate onboarding issues, while later churn could suggest value decay.

Key Findings

  • Churned MRR: $305 - Indicates the total revenue lost due to churn.
  • Churned Count: 5 - The number of subscriptions that churned within 0-1 months.
  • Pattern Observed: Early churn is significant, potentially signaling issues in the initial stages of customer engagement.

Interpretation

The high churn rate within the first month suggests potential issues with onboarding, product fit, or customer expectations. Understanding and addressing these early churn factors could help improve customer retention and overall revenue.

Context

This section provides valuable insights into the timing of churn within the subscription lifecycle. Further analysis could delve into specific reasons for early churn and strategies to mitigate it, aligning with the overall goal of predicting and reducing churn.

IN

Key Insights

Tenure Analysis

Purpose

This section examines churn distribution based on subscription tenure, highlighting the $305 MRR churned in total. Early churn (0-1 months) may indicate onboarding issues, while later churn could suggest value decay.

Key Findings

  • Churned MRR: $305 - Indicates the total revenue lost due to churn.
  • Churned Count: 5 - The number of subscriptions that churned within 0-1 months.
  • Pattern Observed: Early churn is significant, potentially signaling issues in the initial stages of customer engagement.

Interpretation

The high churn rate within the first month suggests potential issues with onboarding, product fit, or customer expectations. Understanding and addressing these early churn factors could help improve customer retention and overall revenue.

Context

This section provides valuable insights into the timing of churn within the subscription lifecycle. Further analysis could delve into specific reasons for early churn and strategies to mitigate it, aligning with the overall goal of predicting and reducing churn.

MRR Analysis

Revenue Breakdown

MRR

MRR Breakdown

Revenue Analysis

4
Total MRR

Monthly Recurring Revenue breakdown

Metric Value
Active MRR $2,566.75
Avg MRR/Subscription $71.3
Churned MRR $305
Pending Churn MRR $0
2567
total mrr
71.3
avg mrr per sub
total mrr: 2567
avg mrr per sub: 71.3
churned mrr: 305
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Key Insights

MRR Breakdown

Purpose

This section provides a breakdown of Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) metrics, including total MRR, average MRR per subscription, churned MRR, and pending MRR. Understanding these metrics is crucial for assessing revenue performance and identifying areas of potential revenue loss due to churn.

Key Findings

  • Total MRR: $2,566.75 - The overall revenue generated from subscriptions.
  • Avg MRR per Subscription: $71.3 - The average revenue generated per active subscription.
  • Churned MRR: $305 - The revenue lost due to churn.
  • Pending MRR: $0 - Revenue at risk of being lost due to pending churn.

Interpretation

The total MRR of $2,566.75 indicates the current revenue stream from active subscriptions. The average MRR per subscription helps understand the value each customer brings. The churned MRR of $305 highlights the revenue impact of lost subscriptions. Pending MRR being $0 suggests no immediate revenue loss but potential future impact.

Context

These MRR metrics are essential for tracking revenue performance and understanding the financial implications of subscription churn. However, further analysis may be needed to identify factors contributing to churn and strategies to mitigate revenue loss.

IN

Key Insights

MRR Breakdown

Purpose

This section provides a breakdown of Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) metrics, including total MRR, average MRR per subscription, churned MRR, and pending MRR. Understanding these metrics is crucial for assessing revenue performance and identifying areas of potential revenue loss due to churn.

Key Findings

  • Total MRR: $2,566.75 - The overall revenue generated from subscriptions.
  • Avg MRR per Subscription: $71.3 - The average revenue generated per active subscription.
  • Churned MRR: $305 - The revenue lost due to churn.
  • Pending MRR: $0 - Revenue at risk of being lost due to pending churn.

Interpretation

The total MRR of $2,566.75 indicates the current revenue stream from active subscriptions. The average MRR per subscription helps understand the value each customer brings. The churned MRR of $305 highlights the revenue impact of lost subscriptions. Pending MRR being $0 suggests no immediate revenue loss but potential future impact.

Context

These MRR metrics are essential for tracking revenue performance and understanding the financial implications of subscription churn. However, further analysis may be needed to identify factors contributing to churn and strategies to mitigate revenue loss.

Job ID: test_commerce__stripe__subscriptions__churn_prediction_20251220_003616
Secret Hash: 36f2d40ab80e