Prophet models trend, seasonality, holidays, and changepoints to produce explainable forecasts with intervals and component plots.
Data Format
Use two columns: ds (date) and y (numeric value). Optional regressors can be added as extra columns.
Key Components
- Trend with changepoints controlling flexibility
- Automatic seasonality (daily/weekly/yearly)
- Holiday effects with country calendars
- Extra regressors for known drivers
Validation
- Cross‑validation on rolling horizons
- Error metrics and coverage of intervals
- Component plots for interpretation