Analysis overview and configuration
| Parameter | Value | _row |
|---|---|---|
| confidence_level | 0.95 | confidence_level |
| at_risk_statuses | past_due,unpaid | at_risk_statuses |
| churned_statuses | canceled | churned_statuses |
This analysis evaluates subscription health across a 50-subscription portfolio by identifying churn patterns, quantifying revenue at risk, and segmenting risk by plan tier. The objective is to pinpoint at-risk accounts and measure financial exposure to enable targeted retention efforts.
The portfolio demonstrates moderate overall health with 72% active subscriptions, but risk concentration in the Basic tier and early-lifecycle churn warrant attention.
Data preprocessing and column mapping
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Initial Rows | 50 |
| Final Rows | 50 |
| Rows Removed | 0 |
| Retention Rate | 100% |
This section documents the data cleaning and preparation phase for the churn analysis. A 100% retention rate indicates no rows were excluded during preprocessing, meaning all 50 subscription records were deemed valid for analysis. This is critical for the churn prediction objective, as it ensures the analysis captures the complete subscription population without sampling bias.
The perfect retention rate reflects a clean, well-structured source dataset from Stripe with no missing critical fields or invalid records. This enables accurate calculation of the 10.6% churn rate and $553 MRR at risk across all 50 subscriptions. However, the absence of any filtering also means no data quality issues were detected or corrected—suggesting either excellent upstream data governance or potential latent quality issues not captured by the preprocessing logic.
No train/test split was applied, consistent with the descriptive statistics approach rather than predictive modeling. The analysis relies on point-in-time status snapshots, so
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Churn Rate | 10.6% | Needs attention - churn rate above 5% is concerning |
| MRR Health | $8,525 | Active MRR |
| At-Risk Subscriptions | 6 subs ($553 MRR) | Monitor - 5-15% of MRR at risk |
| Avg Subscription Age | 19.1 months | Average customer lifetime |
| Plans Analyzed | 3 | Plan tiers compared |
This executive summary assesses whether the churn analysis achieved its objective of identifying at-risk subscriptions and quantifying revenue exposure. It provides decision-makers with a clear health snapshot of the subscription portfolio and highlights where retention efforts should focus.
The analysis successfully identified at-risk cohorts and quantified revenue exposure. While the absolute churn rate is concerning, the mature subscription age and concentrated at-risk MRR suggest this is a recovery opportunity rather than systemic failure. The Basic plan's elevated churn warrants investigation into pricing, feature gaps, or onboarding effectiveness.
This is a point-in-time snapshot without trend analysis; churn may be improving or deteriorating month-
Current subscription status distribution across the portfolio
This section provides a real-time snapshot of subscription health by categorizing all 50 subscriptions into five Stripe statuses. It establishes the baseline portfolio composition—distinguishing between healthy active subscriptions, recoverable at-risk accounts, and already-churned customers—which directly supports the churn prediction objective by identifying the population at immediate risk of revenue loss.
The portfolio demonstrates solid health with 72% active subscriptions, but the 12% at-risk segment represents immediate intervention opportunities. These six accounts are functionally different from churned customers—they haven't canceled yet and may recover with payment recovery or support outreach. The 10% historical churn rate (5 canceled) provides context for understanding whether current at-risk accounts represent typical churn velocity or an emerging problem.
Monthly recurring revenue breakdown by plan tier and subscription health status
This section quantifies revenue exposure by subscription health status across plan tiers. It identifies the portion of MRR at immediate risk due to payment failures or account suspension, enabling prioritization of retention efforts where revenue impact is highest. Understanding at-risk MRR is critical to the churn analysis objective—it translates customer churn risk into financial terms.
The company's revenue base is predominantly healthy, but the 6.5% at-risk figure reveals meaningful exposure. Enterprise subscriptions contribute disproportionately to at-risk MRR despite lower churn rates, reflecting the revenue impact of losing high-value customers. This concentration suggests that retention efforts should prioritize Enterprise accounts in past-due status to protect the largest revenue segments
Churn rate and at-risk percentage comparison across plan tiers
This section compares churn and at-risk rates across the three plan tiers to identify which customer segments face the highest retention risk. Understanding plan-level variation is critical for prioritizing retention efforts and allocating resources where revenue impact is greatest.
The Basic plan exhibits disproportionate churn risk despite representing the largest customer count. This suggests price-sensitive customers are more likely to cancel or fall into payment issues. Enterprise customers demonstrate resilience, with only 1 churned subscription out of 14 total. The Pro Plan's low churn combined with moderate MRR ($1,029) indicates a balanced segment worth protecting.
This snapshot reflects
Distribution of subscription ages showing when customers are most likely to churn
This section maps subscription churn patterns across customer lifecycle stages, revealing whether the SaaS company faces early-stage onboarding friction or late-stage value realization challenges. Understanding when customers churn is critical for diagnosing root causes and allocating retention resources effectively.
The data reveals a critical early-stage churn problem: all historical churn occurred within the first 6 months, indicating onboarding or initial value delivery issues. However, the presence of 5 at-risk subscriptions in the 12+ month cohort signals that retention challenges persist beyond the trial phase. The mature cohort's stability (zero churn among 36 active) suggests customers who
Plan-level subscription performance with churn rates and MRR
| Plan | Total | Active | Trialing | At_Risk | Churned | Churn_Rate_Pct | Monthly_MRR_USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Plan | 20 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5.6% | $1,029 |
| Basic | 16 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 18.8% | $266 |
| Enterprise | 14 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.7% | $7,230 |
This section provides a plan-tier breakdown of subscription health metrics to identify which pricing tiers are experiencing the highest churn and revenue risk. Understanding performance variance across plans is critical for diagnosing whether churn stems from specific product tiers, pricing misalignment, or feature gaps—directly supporting the objective to identify at-risk subscriptions and measure MRR exposure by plan.
The Basic plan exhibits significantly elevated churn (18.8%) compared to Pro (5.6%) and Enterprise (7.7%), suggesting potential friction in the entry-level tier. While Basic contributes minimal MRR ($266), its high churn rate indicates either poor product-market fit at that price
Detailed breakdown of at-risk subscriptions requiring immediate retention attention
| Status | Plan | MRR_USD | Age_Days | Cancel_Sched | Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| past_due | Enterprise | $398 | 746 | No | month |
| past_due | Pro Plan | $49 | 662 | No | month |
| past_due | Pro Plan | $49 | 709 | No | month |
| unpaid | Basic | $19 | 613 | No | month |
| past_due | Basic | $19 | 641 | No | month |
This section identifies subscriptions in immediate jeopardy of churn, segmented by failure mode (payment issues vs. scheduled cancellation). Understanding at-risk subscriptions is critical for the churn prediction objective, as these represent the highest-probability churn candidates and quantify near-term revenue exposure that could be recovered through targeted intervention.
The 6 at-risk subscriptions represent a measurable but contained revenue threat. These are not predictive signals—they reflect current Stripe status states that indicate imminent churn likelihood. The $553 exposure is modest relative to total MRR ($8,525), but the 12% at-risk rate suggests underlying payment or satisfaction issues warrant investigation. The distribution across plan tiers (Enterprise, Pro, Basic) indicates churn risk is not isolated to lower
Trial-to-paid conversion rates by plan tier
| Plan | Trials | Converted | Conversion_Rate | Avg_Trial_Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Plan | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 13.7 |
| Basic | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 13.7 |
| Enterprise | 1 | 0 | 0% | 16 |
Trial conversion analysis measures how effectively trial users convert to paying customers across plan tiers. This is a critical leading indicator of long-term retention—customers who successfully convert from trial demonstrate product-market fit and are significantly more likely to remain active subscribers. Understanding conversion performance by plan helps identify which tiers attract committed users versus those with higher abandonment risk.
The absence of trial conversion detail limits visibility into a key retention predictor. However, the presence of 4 active trials suggests the company is acquiring trial users. The distribution across all three plan tiers indicates trials span the product portfolio, though conversion outcomes remain unmeasured in this snapshot.
This analysis is point-in-time and does not track trial progression over time. Trial conversion requires longitudinal data linking trial start dates to conversion events—data that may exist in Stripe but