There's something ironic about being a data scientist who refuses to look at their own business data. For two years, I ran my Etsy shop selling hand-painted ceramics the way most creative people do: by feel, intuition, and a whole lot of hope. I'd check my sales total at the end of each month, feel either good or bad about it, and move on.
The truth? I was terrified of what the numbers might tell me.
The "Am I Actually Making Money?" Question
It started with a simple question from my partner over dinner: "Do you think you could do this full-time?"
I wanted to say yes. I'd been dreaming about quitting my day job and focusing on my ceramics. But I honestly had no idea if that was remotely realistic. Sure, I was getting sales. Some months were great. Others were... less great. But was I profitable? Was I growing? Which products were actually worth my time?
I realized I'd been running my business like I was still in hobby mode—making what I felt like making, pricing based on gut feeling, and celebrating every sale without asking whether that sale actually contributed to a sustainable business.
"I was celebrating revenue while ignoring profit. I was counting orders without understanding which ones actually mattered."
The Data Deep Dive I'd Been Avoiding
So I finally did what I should have done two years ago: I downloaded all my Etsy transaction data and actually analyzed it. And within an hour, I had my first major revelation.
My best-selling product—these cute mini planters that I thought were my "bread and butter"—were actually losing me money. After accounting for materials, shipping costs, and the Etsy fees, I was making about $2.50 per planter. Sounds okay until you realize each one took me nearly an hour to make and paint.
I was paying myself less than minimum wage to make my most popular product.
Using a sales performance analysis, I broke down every product by revenue, profit margin, and volume. Turns out my larger serving bowls—the ones I made less frequently because they felt "too expensive" at $85—had a 60% profit margin and took roughly the same time as making three planters.
The Geographic Surprise
The second surprise came from looking at where my customers actually were. I'd assumed my market was primarily coastal cities—places like Portland, Seattle, San Francisco. You know, the "artisanal ceramics" demographic.
Wrong.
When I ran a geographic sales breakdown, I discovered that my highest customer concentration was actually in Texas, particularly Austin and Houston. And my average order value from Texas customers was 40% higher than my coastal customers.
I'd been completely blind to my actual market. I'd been creating products and marketing materials aimed at an audience that wasn't really my core customer base. Once I saw this, I adjusted my product descriptions, photography style, and even my color palette to better resonate with where my customers actually lived.
The Product Mix Reality Check
Here's where things got really interesting. I'd always thought of my shop as a "ceramics business," but the product mix analysis told a different story.
My shop was actually three distinct mini-businesses:
1. Functional kitchenware (bowls, mugs, plates) - 35% of revenue, 50% of profit
2. Decorative home items (planters, vases, sculptures) - 50% of revenue, 25% of profit
3. Custom commissioned pieces - 15% of revenue, 25% of profit
The custom work was fascinating. It represented the smallest portion of my revenue but had the highest profit per item and the best customer satisfaction ratings. These customers left the most detailed reviews and were far more likely to become repeat buyers.
This insight completely changed my strategy. Instead of trying to pump out high-volume decorative items, I started positioning myself more as a custom ceramicist who also sold ready-made pieces. It meant fewer total sales but higher value and more sustainability.
The Discount Trap
I'll admit it: I was a serial discounter. Every holiday, every slow week, any excuse to run a sale. I thought I was being smart—generating urgency, moving inventory, staying competitive.
Then I looked at my discount effectiveness data, and I felt like an idiot.
My 20% off sales generated a bunch of orders, sure. But those customers almost never came back. My repeat purchase rate from discounted sales was 8%, compared to 34% from full-price purchases. I was training customers to wait for sales, eroding my brand value, and attracting the wrong kind of buyer.
The data showed something else too: my sales actually didn't drop that much during non-discount periods. I'd been discounting out of fear, not necessity. When I stopped the constant sales cycle and focused on value, my profit margins improved by 18% while my overall sales dropped by only 6%.
"I'd been trading long-term brand value for short-term dopamine hits from sale notifications."
What This All Meant
After a weekend of diving deep into my shop data, I had a completely different picture of my business. I wasn't running an unprofitable hobby, but I also wasn't ready to quit my day job tomorrow. I was somewhere in between—with a clear path forward.
Here's what I changed:
Products: Discontinued low-margin items, focused on functional kitchenware and custom work
Pricing: Raised prices on remaining items by 15-25%, stopped constant discounting
Marketing: Shifted focus to Texas market, emphasized custom capabilities
Production: Batched similar items, reduced SKU count by 40%
Six months later, my revenue is down about 10%, but my profit is up 35%. More importantly, I'm working fewer hours on my shop while making more money per hour. I'm not full-time yet, but I can now see exactly what it would take to get there.
The Lesson I Should Have Known
I analyze data professionally. I help companies make better decisions based on evidence. But when it came to my own creative work, I let emotion override analysis. I was afraid the data would tell me my dream wasn't viable, so I just... didn't look.
Turns out, the data didn't kill my dream. It gave me a roadmap.
If you're running an Etsy shop—or any small business—and you're not regularly looking at your numbers, I get it. It's scary. It feels clinical and anti-creative. But I promise you: understanding your data doesn't make your work less artistic or meaningful. It just makes it sustainable.
And sustainability? That's what lets you keep creating for the long haul.
Ready to understand your own Etsy shop data? MCP Analytics offers specialized analysis tools designed specifically for Etsy sellers. No complicated setup, no spreadsheets—just clear insights about what's working and what isn't. Explore the analysis catalog to see what questions you can answer about your business.